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Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Tips - Crows expected to get the run on the Saints wearing them down for a win

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Last updated: 11 Jul 2024
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Ryan Tucker 11 Jul 2024
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  • Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda expert predictions for Saturday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
  • Adelaide Crows are predicted to win narrowly against St Kilda this Saturday night.
  • Key statistical strengths for Adelaide include being 3rd in Rebound 50s.
  • Expert prediction: Crows to win by 1-39 points, with game total expected to go under.
Ryan's top picks for the late Saturday games.

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction


Two wildly inconsistent teams face off at the Adelaide oval this Saturday night with the hometown Crows predicted to get the victory by a small margin.
  • Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Adelaide Crows Team News
  • Adelaide Crows Team List
  • St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • St Kilda Team News
  • St Kilda Team List
  • Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

Adelaide will look to exploit the mismatch in Rebounding from the back half with St Kilda being one of the worst teams in the league to stop their opposition making a forward entry moving the ball from the defensive end. 

The majority of the Crows points originate from their back half with solid lead up play and a strong attacking prowess. Now this will definitely be tested against one of the leagues better defensive teams but if Adelaide are able to find space it will be open pickings for them with St Kilda unable to counter-attack.

My prediction is the Crows by 1-39 and the Game Total to go Under.

  • Adelaide are 3rd in the AFL in Rebound 50’s.
  • St Kilda are the 3rd worst team in allowing Rebound 50’s to their opponents.
  • The Saints commit the 4th most Turnovers of any team in the league.
  • 5 of the last 6 games have finished with a Winning Margin of 1-39.

Head to Head 


These two teams have met on 6 occasions dating back to the start of the 2019 season. Adelaide hold a 4-2 advantage in the head to head including winning the most recent match up 121-69 in Round 9 last year.

The ATS record is split 3-3 with the Game Total also being split down the middle 3-3 across the last 6 games.

The Winning Margin in this matchup has been between 1-39 in 5 of the last 6 games.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-42-34-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$568-83-92-1

The Crows have been one of the most underperforming teams of the 2024 season. Not only have they not reached the heights that were promised to their fan base in terms of wins but the game play has been inconsistent at best. 

Adelaide never led in their 11 point loss to the Lions last weekend but were at times surging and had the momentum. Not a lot went wrong with the attack led by Ben Keays who kicked 4 goals. But their defensive presence once again let them down with the Brisbane midfield getting the ball at their pleasure and using it well.

Adelaide Crows Team News


Mitch Hinge left the loss to Brisbane with an adductor injury which will cause him to miss this weekend’s clash. 

Luke Pedlar joins Wayne Milera and Patrick Parnell on the season ending injury list following a shoulder injury in the SANFL last weekend. 

Will Hamill will miss the next few weeks after undergoing finger surgery.

Adelaide Crows Team List


B: M.Keane, N.Murray, J.Butts
HB: M.Michalanney, L.Nankervis, B.Smith
C: L.Sholl, R.Laird, B.Dowling
HF: B.Keays, J.Rachele, J.Dawson - C
F: E.Himmelberg, T.Walker, D.Fogarty
FOLL: R.O’Brien, J.Soligo, S.Berry

I/C: R.Thilthorpe, H.Bond, B.Cook, L.Murphy, Z.Taylor
EMG: J.Borlase, C.Jones, H.Schoenberg

IN: R.Thilthorpe, H.Bond
OUT: M.Hinge (Injured), I.Rankine (Suspension)

St Kilda Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-23-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-3940+
-$345-116-90-1

How a team can lose to Port Adelaide one week and turn around and beat Sydney the next astounds me. But St Kilda have done just that. They were obviously helped by the Swans inaccuracy in front of goal but the Saints were at least in a position to take advantage of their opposition's misfortune. 

For a team that has had the form that St Kilda have had this season that is something to at least look positive on and try to take into this week’s game. 

St Kilda Team News


Marcus Windhager pulled a hammy last week in the win against Sydney and is set to miss up to 6 weeks. Anthony Caminiti is expected to be out for another 2-3 weeks as he rehabs an ankle injury. 

Paddy Dow, Riley Bonner and Dougal Howard will all need to pass fitness tests to be up for selection for the trip to Adelaide.

St Kilda Team List


B: J.Battle, D.Howard, C.Wilkie
HB: J.Sinclair, R.Bonner, J.Webster
C: N.Wanganeen-Milera, H.Clark, M.Wood
HF: R.Byrnes, L.Henry, M.Owens
F: J.Higgins, T.Membrey, C.Sharman
FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Steele - C, M.Phillipou

I/C: Z.Jones, D.Butler, D.Wilson, A.Schoenmaker, B.Paton
EMG: H.Garcia, T.Campbell, A.McLennan

IN: R.Bonner, Z.Jones
OUT: B.Hill (Personal Reason), M.Windhager (Injured)

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda AFL 2024 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide will get the win in this one and with the defence of both teams i don't expect there to be too high of a total. Take the Under.
Best Bet1: Adelaide 1-39 Winning Margin @21/20 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 157.5 Game Total @9/10 at Bet Right - 2 Units
Adelaide 1-39
Winning Margin
@21/20 - 2 Units
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Under 157.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Betting Slip | 13 Jul 2024

Adelaide v St Kilda