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Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Round 4 Tips - Dees to down Crows in AFL Gather Round

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Last updated: 02 Apr 2024
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Ryan Tucker 02 Apr 2024
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  • Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons expert predictions for Thursday’s AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Off-field issues fail to hamper Melbourne's on-field performance
  • Goal scoring efficiency is the major determinant of the match, with Adelaide's standing at 14% compared to Melbourne's 26.5%
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Max Gawn
Max Gawn of the Demons (Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Tips


Adelaide will need to wait yet another week for their first win of the season as Melbourne edge out the Crows in Adelaide in the first game of 2024 Gather Round. 

Melbourne will travel to Adelaide to kickoff Gather Round together with the Crows, a successful concept loaned from the NRL’s Magic Round sees all 9 games of AFL this round played in South Australia, showcasing the state to the wider footy public. 

In the corresponding round last year the Crows did their state proud with a massive victory over Carlton 118-62 but this year the story looks a little different. Adelaide head into this game 0-3 with a lot of pressure on their shoulders, their outlook this season was to improve on the somewhat lackluster performance from last year and it has started terribly.

Melbourne on the other hand are at least performing on the park with a number of off the field controversies doing little to disrupt the playing group. In last years Gather Round matchup with Essendon the Demons fell 77-104 to the Bombers at Adelaide Oval and will pumped to reverse the outcome under Thursday night lights starting off the weekend with a bang.

It sounds obvious to say it but this game will be won in front of goal. Both these teams are quite similar statistically this season but Adelaide have not been efficient when scoring. Melbourne are ranked 3rd in the league in Goal Efficiency hitting at 26.5% whilst Adelaide are 2nd last at only 14%

  • Adelaide average 54.7 Inside 50’s so far this season but average only 7.7 goals per game
  • Melbourne take only 9.5 Marks Inside 50 per game but have the 3rd best Goal Efficiency in the league at 26.5%
  • The average margin of victory in Melbourne’s last three wins over Adelaide is 24.6 pts
  • Max Gawn is in the Elite bracket for disposals this season averaging 19.3 per game, up on his career number of 15.5

Head to Head 


Melbourne have the upper hand over Adelaide the past few years holding a 4-2 advantage over all games played since the start of the 2019 season. The Dees have won the last three in a row and 2 of the last 3 at Adelaide Oval. 

In the sole matchup last year Melbourne never trailed in the match with the Crows wrestling back the match from a 30 point deficit in the 3rd quarter to even numbers 7 minutes into the 4th. The win though was a bridge too far as Melbourne regained it’s composure to hold on for a narrow win. 

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-31-20-3

The Crows went down to Fremantle last weekend in a woeful display of footy. Adelaide started off relatively strong kicking the first goal of the game and getting out to a 10 point lead on multiple occasions. 

Midway through the second quarter though they allowed Fremantle to gain momentum which never really stopped and the Dockers ran away 35 point winners in low scoring game. 

Adelaide were once again below average in front of goal, kicking 4.10 in the game as well as a number of kicks that went wide or fell short.

Adelaide Crows Team News


The early prognosis according to the AFL's Nathan Schmook is that Wayne Milera is done for the season and will undergo surgery this week on his knee. 

Lachlan Murphy will be out 3-5 weeks also with a knee injury. Jordan Butts will test his ankle before game day and there is still no word on Rory Sloane who is out with an eye injury.

Adelaide Crows Team List


Team list to come.


Melbourne Demons Form Analysis


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-13-12-2

The Dees picked up a handy win against fellow top 4 hopeful Port Adelaide last weekend also at Adelaide Oval.

In a game that had big momentum swings it was Melbourne who were able to time it right, having all the energy in the 4th to take a 7 point victory. 

Melbourne’s trend of being accurate and efficient Inside 50 continued as they had only 45 entries kicking 15.6 on the day. 

To shine a light on the 4th quarter play Melbourne had 35% possession in the last 10 minutes of the game compared to Ports 29%.

Melbourne Demons Team News


The early news according to AFL's Alison O'Connor is that Marty Hore will need surgery on his thumb ruling him out for the next month while Kade Chandler will need a fitness test before being given the green light. 

Steven May should be right to go following a rib injury as should Lachie Hunter who has battled a calf injury. Daniel Turner and Charlie Spargo are still a few weeks away.

Melbourne Demons Team List


Team list to come.

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2024 Round 4 FAQs

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2024 Round 4?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2024 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2024 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2024 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide site.

Verdict

Adelaide have struggled this season and just can’t seem to move the ball forward with any sort of accuracy. When the tough gets going they fold and let their opposition run away with the game. 

I don’t see them magically fixing that in one week so my expectation is Melbourne take this game with the Crows Defence the only thing stopping a blowout. 

Player Props haven't been released yet but Max Gawn will continue his elite season going Over his disposal numbers, whatever they turn out to be!
Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-20 Winning Margin @29/10 at Elitebet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 169.5 Game Total @8/9 at Boombet - 2 Units
Melbourne 1-20
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